Data at work: Predicting places (in the US) that are most vulnerable to disease.

This news story focuses on parts of the United States that are particularly vulnerable to outbreaks of of preventable diseases.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/health/us-hot-spots-from-opting-out-of-vaccines-study/index.html

I share this story not to open up the vaccination debate, but rather to show how public health officials track aggregate data about vaccination rates to see where disease exposure is most likely to lead to a serious outbreak. They use vaccination rates obtained from schools, because that's where vaccination rates can easily be tracked. Students in public schools must present proof of vaccinations or have some sort of alternate forms or approvals. The laws vary by state, but exemptions from vaccinations can be granted for religious reasons, medical reasons, and sometimes for personal choice.

The vaccination-autism link originally reported in a since retracted study led many parents to opt out of vaccines for their children. Even after the retraction, many continue to opt out and believe that vaccines will do more harm than good (the data suggest otherwise,* but as with anything there are some risks associated with vaccines).

We look to the data, and it shows that with the rise of vaccines we saw the fall of related diseases. Those diseases are less common now, but not eradicated. These data suggest that vaccines are effective at lowering rates of disease by both preventing/lessening severity of disease in vaccinated people and also making it less likely that unvaccinated people will encounter the disease. In that sense, vaccinated people not only protect themselves, but also fellow citizens. However, as rates of vaccination decline, more people are believed to be vulnerable to disease should they encounter it. And that is the data story related to vaccines.


*This is a tricky data story overall. One reason why the vaccine-autism link was accepted by so many people on the basis of a single study was because signs of autism emerged in many children at about the same time that they were receiving many vaccines. There is a correlation between the age when certain vaccines are given and the youngest age at which autism tends to be diagnosed. However, correlation does not equal causation.